Latest Issue
The Negative Experiences of Low-Income Citizen Commute and Their Intentions Toward Public Bus in Phnom Penh
Published: December 31,2025Reliability Study on the Placement of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations in the Distribution Network of Cambodia
Published: December 31,2025Planning For Medium Voltage Distribution Systems Considering Economic And Reliability Aspects
Published: December 31,2025Security Management of Reputation Records in the Self-Sovereign Identity Network for the Trust Enhancement
Published: December 31,2025Effect of Enzyme on Physicochemical and Sensory Characteristics of Black Soy Sauce
Published: December 31,2025Activated Carbon Derived from Cassava Peels (Manihot esculenta) for the Removal of Diclofenac
Published: December 31,2025Impact of Smoking Materials on Smoked Fish Quality and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Contamination
Published: December 31,2025Estimation of rainfall and flooding with remotely-sensed spectral indices in the Mekong Delta region
Published: December 31,2025An Empirical Investigation of Gold Price Forecasting Using ARIMA Compare with LSTM Model
-
1. Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Institute of Technology of Cambodia, Russian Federation Blvd., P.O. Box 86,
Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Academic Editor:
Received: April 29,2023 / Revised: / Accepted: July 13,2023 / Available online: December 31,2023
Time series forecasting is a well-established research domain, particularly in finance and econometrics, with a multitude of methods and algorithms proposed to achieve accurate future trend predictions. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of two popular models, ARIMA and LSTM, for predicting trends in gold prices in finance and econometrics. Monthly global gold prices from January 2010 to December 2022 are analyzed, with a training set from January 2010 to December 2020, a validation set of 12 months randomly selected from the training set, and a test set from January 2021 to December 2022. The results show that the LSTM model with a forget gate cell at 600 epochs yields the highest accuracy in term of RMSE, MAPE and SMAPE, surpassing all other models, including the ARIMA model. The study also suggests that increasing the number of epochs beyond 600 does not lead to significant improvements in the LSTM model's performance. While the ARIMA model is simpler to implement and requires less time for parameter tuning and training, it is less accurate than the LSTM model. Incorporating a peephole connection to the LSTM cell does not improve the model's accuracy or training speed. The study's outcomes provide valuable insights into optimal practices for gold price prediction, with implications for decision-making and risk management processes.
